Doing the Impossible: Betting on College and Professional Football

It is that time of the year. College football week 2 is coming up, and the NFL kicks off tonight with the Detroit Lions visiting the Kansas City Chiefs. Football will be a revenue driving force for every sports book, as BILLIONS of bets will be placed from now until the end of February. As a bettor, what should you do to get the best of it?

  1. Bet Early

If you have any hunch or suspicion about a game, bet early. Getting lines around key numbers (+7.5 compared to +6.5) is key. If you like a +7.5 dog early in the week, it is better to bet it on a Monday, in case it moves to +6.5 or worse later in the week. Even if you get the worst of it, having +7.5 and it moving to +6.5 is worth more than the value lost when you have +7.5 and it moves to +8.5, since you get the key number of 7.

  1. Watch the Box Score

There are plenty of times where upsets happen and you may want to devalue the losing team. Before you do this, take a look at the box score and ask yourself a few questions. Did the losing team come out on the wrong side of the turnover battle? Did they lose but actually outgain their opponent? The answers to these questions will provide useful information you can use to bet the losing team next week at a better price. Here is a great example using the Texas Tech @ Wyoming game from this past weekend.

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Wyoming pulled off the upset against Texas Tech as a 14.5 point underdog, cashing +410 moneyline tickets. You can see here that they outgained Wyoming, ran more plays, and were more efficient on third down. Tech also missed a few field goals, something that I don't see happening every game. From this, I would be inclined to bet Texas Text at an advantageous number the next week (+7 hosting Oregon).

  1. Bet Responsibly and Have Good Bankroll Management Skills

It is important to remember that betting on sports is entertainment. Short term wins are very fun, but be sure to gamble responsibly and manage your bankroll. If you have $1,000 as a bankroll, I would bet $10-$50 a game.

Here is to a fun and winning football season!