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We're headed to the west coast for this one. This pick will be the complete opposite of a long shot Kansas +4800. Call me Spongebob Squarepants because we are riding with the Trojans of USC.
I won't waste your time because we all know why USC is the favorite. They're returning a Heisman and potential number one overall pick quarterback, a second year with Lincoln Riley, another year to improve the defense, and a weaker Pac-12. Lincoln Riley is arguably the best coach in the Pac-12 (maybe Kyle Whittingham), and they bring in 12 four-star recruits from the transfer portal (according to 247sports.com).
The Trojan defense was nothing short of terrible last season. They ranked 81st in College Football while giving up an average of 29.2 points per game. It can't get worse. They also bring in four-star DL Bear Alexander from Georgia, which is in the running for the best name in college football.
On the offensive side, they bring in Kliff Kingsbury as an assistant coach. Say what you want about Kingsbury, but he has a solid track record with quarterbacks. Yes, they lose Jordan Addison and Travis Dye, but they have done an adequate job replacing them, as you can see here.
Now this is the main reason I love this square bet.
There is absolutely no excuse if they do not start the season 6-0. USC vs. Notre Dame will decide whether this Trojan team is a national title contender or if they're another choke job Pac-12 team.
An important aspect of their schedule is that their only difficult conference road game is at Oregon at the end of the season. They avoid playing their kryptonite in Salt Lake City against the Utes. They get to play the Utes in Los Angeles, and they play their rivals UCLA at home as well. The schedule is extremely favorable; they should only lose one game max in conference play. If USC is in the Pac-12 title game, there is no way they will be an underdog, let alone a +200 underdog.
Give me USC over 9.5 wins as well. The only two potential losses I see on their schedule is at Notre Dame and at Oregon. I would not be shocked if the Trojans went undefeated and then got stomped by Georgia or Alabama in the CFP semifinal.
It's square, boring, and not sexy, but man, it's gonna hit.
