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The Genesis Invitational is one of the most prestigious stops on the PGA Tour calendar, held at the iconic Torrey Pines South in San Diego, California. As a Signature Event, it boasts an elite field and a $20 million purse, ensuring that the world’s best players are in attendance. Unlike standard Tour events, the Genesis Invitational has a limited field of 70-80 players and features a 36-hole cut, with only the top 50 and ties advancing to the weekend.
Torrey Pines South is a par 72 course measuring 7,765 yards, demanding precision and power from players. One of its most defining characteristics is the importance of long approach shots, with a significant number of approaches coming from 200+ yards. The course features Kikuyu grass fairways and rough, which can be tricky to navigate due to its grabby nature, as well as Poa annua greens, which can become unpredictable as the day progresses. Success at Torrey Pines South heavily depends on a combination of elite ball striking, strong long-iron play, and distance off the tee. The ability to shape shots both ways is also crucial, as Torrey Pines forces players to work the ball in multiple directions to access its tough pin locations.
Now, let’s dive into the players I’m backing this week based on course fit and recent form.
Rory McIlroy (+800)
McIlroy is one of the most well-rounded players in the field, ranking 4th in strokes gained (SG) over his last five starts at +1.528 per round. His ability to hit high-quality long irons from 200+ yards makes him an excellent fit for Torrey Pines South, where long approaches are key. Over the last two years, Rory has gained 0.057 strokes per approach from 200+ yards. He has also demonstrated strong performance at Torrey Pines South, gaining 0.81 strokes per round there over the last five seasons. His driving distance is a major weapon, gaining 2.6 strokes off the tee in distance, making him the best course fit per DataGolf’s model.
Justin Thomas (+1200 1/5 1-10 EW)
Thomas thrives in events that reward strong approach play, and Torrey Pines South is no exception. He has gained 1.5 strokes per round over his last five starts, largely due to his elite iron play. Over half of his strokes gained come from approach, which is vital for handling Torrey Pines South’s difficult green complexes. Thomas has also played well at Torrey Pines South, gaining 1.6 strokes over 14 rounds, which further supports his ability to excel on a course like this. His length off the tee and strong long-iron play make him an excellent contender.
Rasmus Hojgaard (+2500 1/5 1-10 EW)
Hojgaard brings the perfect blend of distance and approach precision from 200+ yards, making him a strong course fit. While he struggles with accuracy off the tee, Torrey Pines South allows for some forgiveness in this area. He enters the tournament in solid form, with two top-20 finishes in his last three starts. His ability to gain strokes in key areas like driving distance and long approach shots makes him a sneaky contender at great odds.
Keegan Bradley (+4000 1/5 1-10 EW)
Bradley enters this event in good form and has already posted a T15 finish at the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines South this year. His well-rounded game allows him to excel at difficult courses, and he has proven he can play well at Torrey Pines South. His runner-up finish at Torrey Pines in 2023 shows he can handle long and demanding courses.
Sam Burns (+4500 1/4 1-5 EW)
Burns is an intriguing bet due to his combination of distance off the tee and elite putting. He gains 2 strokes per round putting, which is key on Torrey Pines South’s tricky Poa annua greens. While he hasn’t historically played well at Torrey Pines South, DataGolf projects him as a strong course fit, making him worth a bet at this price.
Max Greyserman (+5500 1/5 1-10 EW)
Greyserman fits the mold of a dark-horse contender thanks to his combination of putting and driving distance. While he isn’t the most accurate off the tee, that isn’t as penalizing at Torrey Pines South. His T48 finish at Torrey Pines South earlier this season saw him post positive strokes gained in both putting and off the tee, which suggests he has the tools to improve on that result.
Tony Finau (+5000)
Finau is one of the best long-iron players in the field, gaining strokes both from the fairway and the rough on 200+ yard approaches. He has historically played well at Torrey Pines South, gaining +1.64 strokes per round at the course. With a well-rounded game and above-average putting, he has the upside to contend if he can find his best form.
Sam Stevens (+210)
Stevens has quietly been one of the most consistent ball-strikers in the field, making him a solid pick for a top-20 finish. His ability to hit quality approaches from long range gives him a strong chance to play well at Torrey Pines South.
Robert MacIntyre (+140)
MacIntyre’s left-handed shot shape and elite approach play from 200+ yards make him a great fit for Torrey Pines South. He has shown the ability to compete in tough fields and is a strong value bet for a top-20 finish.
Min Woo Lee (+180)
Lee’s elite ball-striking and scrambling ability make him a perfect fit for a difficult test like Torrey Pines South. His ability to gain strokes in all aspects of his game gives him a solid chance to contend for a top-20 spot.
Mackenzie Hughes (Top-5 +2200)
Hughes is one of the best short-game players on Tour, which can be a major asset at Torrey Pines South. If he can find form with his irons, his putting and scrambling skills could propel him into the top 5.
The Genesis Invitational is a true ball-striker’s test, rewarding those who can excel with their long irons and take advantage of their distance off the tee. With a field loaded with talent, players who can handle Torrey Pines South’s demanding long approaches, navigate the Kikuyu rough, and putt well on Poa annua greens will have the best chance to succeed.
