My Confession

Blog Picks: 5-6 (+1.2 units)

NCAAF: 0-3 (-3 units)

NFL: 4-1 (+3.9 units)

I have a confession to make. I have done things I am not proud of in the past, but this one takes the cake. I could go on and on about how I said Georgia wasn't going to be that good this year. How about the fact that I just paid $8 a month for a blue check next to my name on Twitter? There are plenty of things I could confess to, but I have done something worse.

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I am betting on an NFC South primetime game.

Thursday Night Football: Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) @ Carolina Panthers

If you can think back to the last time these two teams met (it was about 3 weeks ago), you'll remember a crazy game that went to overtime due to a last minute drive that ended with a DJ Moore touchdown pass. This Falcons' defense is the only unit in the world that can make PJ Walker look like Joe Montana.

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However, last week the Panthers had a pathetic performance against the Cincinnati Bengals. This was mostly due to the Bengals honing in their offense and Nixon scoring 5 touchdowns. During this game, Baker Mayfield saw some snaps and actually performed pretty well. The Panthers have 3 "starting caliber" QB's on their roster right now, and this could be a situation where if PJ gets off to a slow start, we see Darnold or Mayfield step in to get some snaps.

While I have no play on the side or total of this game, I will go ahead and bet on PJ having a slow day via the air. This is only a 1 unit play, since the Atlanta Falcons pass defense is one of the worst on the league and it is more so of a bet on the revolving QB door being oiled up.

Official Pick: PJ Walker Under 173.5 passing yards (1u)