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"Yeah dude, I had UConn vs. San Diego State in my bracket!" Shut up, no you didn't. Nobody thought this was possible. Tonight's National Championship will be the least anticipated title game, maybe ever.
The second Sanogo hit back-to-back threes against Miami, Miami was dead.
If you've watched the podcast, you knew I was high on Miami since November, and Saturday night was rough. It would be a lot more fun if it were FAU vs. Miami, but I guess we can't have nice things.
But who cares? It's still the National Championship, both teams deserve to be here, and we both know you are going to watch.
UConn has been a machine. They are dismantling every single team they play. I genuinely have no idea how San Diego State wins this game. It does not matter who UConn is playing right now, they are tearing teams apart, and San Diego State looks like they are next.
After every San Diego State game, I ask myself, "how in the world did they win that game?" and it keeps happening. They very easily could've lost to Charleston; they handled Bama with ease when everybody thought Bama would kill them. They got bailed out against Creighton, and beat FAU on an incredible buzzer-beater.
Everybody in the world, including myself, is beyond confident that UConn is going to dominate the Aztecs. But there has been one consistent theme in this tournament, and that is, fade the public. A good example of this was from the second round, Duke was getting 92% of bets against Tennessee. If you watch basketball, you thought there was no shot. Tennessee was going to beat Duke. Somehow, Tennessee beat Duke.
Sportsbooks have been feasting on public betting this March. Keep an eye on the line in this game, I would guess it gets up UConn -8, and right before tip-off, we will see the line close around -7/-6.5. Heavy public teams have been getting annihilated in March. If we see the line stay the same while UConn continues to get a lot more money on them, then bet San Diego State.
Obviously, I have no statistical backing on this game. Everything points to UConn, but fading the public has been very profitable during the tournament. We are riding the Aztecs with the points, plus a few random props.
