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This Thanksgiving season, I am thankful for my fiancé, family, friends, and health. I am thankful for Karter, who has given me the opportunity to contribute to his website via podcast and blog. I am thankful for Grant and Karter who listen to me rant about whatever it may be that week. I am thankful for LSU missing that PAT against FSU so I can hit my under bet. I am thankful that all of my football teams are at least decent. Lastly, I am thankful for the NFL's sense of humor. The fact that we get to see Kirk Cousins play on what is arguably the biggest regular season stage is hilarious, and I like to think that decision was made on purpose.
I am handful for the three games that we get today, even if they are stinkers. Of course, I have dug into the mud and found a pick for every single game today. So let's unbuckle those jeans, grab another slice of pie, and brace for one of the best NFL days of the season!
The Buffalo Bills are coming off a 31-23 win against the Browns, although the score indicates a closer game than it actually was. This was due to a last second score from Cleveland. The Lions beat the Bears last week 31-30 on the road. The story of these two teams are vastly different. The Bills success has been on the backs of their defense, while the Lions strength is the exact opposite. The Bills have exhibited some incompetencies offensively over the last couple of weeks, but their defense remains on point. While the Lions defense has had its issues, Aidan Hutchinson will get pressure on Josh Allen and put a pause on the scoring.
Official Pick: Under 54.5 (1u)
This is my least favorite game of the holiday. However, anytime you are going to give me a double digit divisional dog I am forced to take it. The hype around the Dallas Cowboys is at an all time high after they blew out the 8-1 Vikings last week. I will bet against recency bias, and trust the Giants to get the job done on the ground. Dallas' defensive line does a great job getting to the QB, but the Giants offense is not built around Daniel Jones passing the ball. You can have the best DB's in coverage in the league, but if the other team doesn't pass the ball it doesn't matter. I am going to take the Giants and the points in this sandwiched matchup.
Official Pick: Giants +10 (1u)
The best gift the NFL could give us, Kirk Cousins in primetime. As someone that claims the Vikings as my NFC team, I can not wait to see how Kirk performs under the big light. The Patriots have one of the best defensive units in the NFL, they can apply pressure and they are great in coverage. We have seen that Kirk Cousins falters when blitzed, and the Patriots blitz on nearly 30% of their defensive snaps. The two games the Vikings lost came against two teams that are the top 5 in blitz rate. I am going to bet on the tryptophan getting to Kirk Cousins in this evening matchup.
Official Pick: Kirk Cousins under 246.5 passing yards (3u)
