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Last week for the WM Phoeix Open, we barly missed on some longshot winners. Hadwin, Fowler, and Schauffele all finished T10 while being within striking distance on the final day. Several miscues from these guys helped Scottie Scheffler retain his championship status at TPC Scottsdale (Yes, I had Scheffler missing the cut).
For those that followed on the Action Network App, we hit big on Horschel and Fowler’s finishing position. We are now looking to ride that momentum into the Genesis Open at Riviera.
A player’s history at Riviera is a predictive factor when trying to determine future success, so we can look at what skillsets thrive at this course and look for golfers that fit that skillset. Players that clean up well around the green and can destroy the ball off the tee have succeeded here in the past, as detailed by former contenders McIlroy, Homa, Rahm, and more. Putting and iron play here is not nearly as important.
A few players have performed well in these aspects as of late, including Rahm and McIlroy (of course), but there are a few players notm mentioned above that have similar skillsets. Tony Finau is approximately 1.5 standard deviations better than the average tour player with regards to strokes gained in driving distance and around the green. This makes him a great fit for this track. He has posted 8 straight rounds with + strokes gained off the tee, and he has boasted + strokes gained around the green in 9 of his last 10 rounds.
Patrick Cantlay has also seen success off the tee and around the green, approximately 1.5 standard deviations better than the average PGA Tour player, similar to Tony Finau. He has not been as hot as Finau, perhaps we could see Patrick progress back up to the mean this week?
Many players have performed well here in a the past, and I will be targeting guys with a good history at Riviera, but have yet to win. Of these players, I am liking Cameron Young to play well. He has steadily climbed to the top 25 of the World Golf Rankings, and he is nearly 3 standard deviations better than the average tour player in terms of driving distance.
I really love Patrick Cantlay this weekend as well. Not only is he a course fit, but he has logged 4 top 20 finishes in the last 5 years. He is poised to break out and win this tournament at some point. At 25/1, why not this week?
My outright winner picks are below, and be sure to check out my profile on the Action Network App for all of my matchup picks, finishing positions, group betting picks, and more!
Cameron Young +3300 (.75u)
Viktor Hovland +2800 (.3u)
Adam Scott +5000 (.5u)
Xander Schauffele +1600 (.5u)
Max Homa +2200 (.3u)
Patrick Cantlay +2500 (1u)
Tony Finau +1600 (.7u)
J.B. Holmes +80000 (.1u)
Luke Donald +80000 (.1u)
Russell Henley +10000 (.4u)
